{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "contractVersion": "1.1.0",
  "decisionId": "report-us",
  "createdAt": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
  "systemBoundary": {
    "project": "AI报告生成器",
    "requestedAction": "购买美国搜索流量",
    "geography": "US/en",
    "payer": "独立顾问",
    "beneficiary": "顾问客户",
    "resourceController": "项目所有者",
    "riskBearer": "项目所有者",
    "included": [
      "美国英语搜索广告",
      "39美元月订阅",
      "首个归因窗口"
    ],
    "excluded": [
      "自然搜索增长",
      "其他国家",
      "团队扩招"
    ]
  },
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "claim": "高意图查询能产生真实订阅",
      "mechanism": "省去手工整理时间",
      "falsifier": "合格点击达到样本仍无支付"
    },
    {
      "id": "H2",
      "claim": "需求存在但39美元价格过高",
      "mechanism": "替代品更便宜",
      "falsifier": "同价真实支付没有价格拒绝信号"
    },
    {
      "id": "H3",
      "claim": "支付前交付演示不足",
      "mechanism": "用户无法判断输出质量",
      "falsifier": "完整样例不改变结账行为"
    }
  ],
  "unresolvedBlockers": [
    {
      "id": "B1",
      "status": "open",
      "primaryVariable": "entry keyword cluster",
      "claim": "尚不知道哪一个入口词簇能在锁定页面、价格、地域和归因后取得可承受CAC的真实客户",
      "resolutionEvidence": "同一入口词簇取得30个原始付费点击并等待14天支付与退款反馈"
    }
  ],
  "reversalEvidence": [
    {
      "id": "R1",
      "wouldChangeDecisionTo": "PAUSE",
      "trigger": "基准入口词簇在30个原始付费点击后无真实客户，或CAC高于40 USD",
      "source": "本轮广告、支付与退款联结日志",
      "asOf": "2026-09-25"
    },
    {
      "id": "R2",
      "wouldChangeDecisionTo": "RESEARCH",
      "trigger": "地域去重需求、eligibility rate或impression share的新证据使30点击无法在现金与时间上限内取得",
      "source": "地域词表与广告展示份额报告",
      "asOf": "2026-09-25"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claimId": "demand",
      "tier": "tool_estimate",
      "value": "800-1200 deduplicated searches/month",
      "source": "地域去重词表",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-25",
      "scope": "US/en"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cpc",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "0.45-0.75 USD from 40-click probe",
      "source": "广告后台导出",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-28",
      "scope": "US/en"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "price",
      "tier": "owner_reported",
      "value": "39 USD/month",
      "source": "当前产品设置",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-01",
      "scope": "one plan"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "conversion",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "0.5%-2.5% click-to-customer",
      "source": "待本轮验证",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-01",
      "scope": "paid search"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "retention_base",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "observed refund-adjusted base paid months: 136/49=2.7755102041 in first 3 months",
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-31",
      "scope": "US/en paying cohort; 49 customers"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "retention_bounds",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "low stress bound 56.1/49=1.1448979592; high horizon cap 147/49=3",
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-31",
      "scope": "modeled bounds around observed base; not additional observed cohorts"
    }
  ],
  "variables": {
    "observed": [
      {
        "name": "actualCpc",
        "value": "0.45-0.75",
        "unit": "USD/click",
        "source": "40-click probe",
        "asOf": "2026-07-28"
      }
    ],
    "controlled": [
      {
        "name": "priceAndLandingPage",
        "fixedAt": "39 USD and version lp-v3"
      }
    ],
    "noise": [
      {
        "name": "auctionAndCompetitorChanges",
        "mitigation": "same geography and daily change log"
      }
    ],
    "feedbackDelays": [
      {
        "signal": "paymentAndRefund",
        "days": 14,
        "basis": "attribution plus refund observation"
      }
    ]
  },
  "market": {
    "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth": {
      "low": 800,
      "base": 1000,
      "high": 1200,
      "method": "same-region task-cluster deduplication"
    },
    "eligibilityRate": {
      "low": 0.6,
      "base": 0.8,
      "high": 0.9,
      "basis": "地域、语言、政策与否定词过滤后仍有资格进入竞价的需求比例",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告资格诊断导出",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "impressionShare": {
      "low": 0.5,
      "base": 0.8,
      "high": 0.85,
      "basis": "相同地域和入口词簇下的实际可获展示份额区间",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告展示份额报告",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "reachableImpressionsPerMonth": {
      "low": 240,
      "base": 640,
      "high": 918,
      "formula": "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth*eligibilityRate*impressionShare"
    },
    "actualCpc": {
      "low": 0.45,
      "base": 0.55,
      "high": 0.75,
      "currency": "USD",
      "source": "40-click probe"
    }
  },
  "offer": {
    "price": {
      "amount": 39,
      "currency": "USD",
      "unit": "customer-month"
    },
    "nonAcquisitionVariableCostsPerUnit": {
      "modelApi": 5,
      "payment": 1.5,
      "refundChargeback": 2,
      "fulfillmentSupport": 3,
      "infrastructure": 1,
      "taxCompliance": 2,
      "other": 0
    },
    "contributionMarginBeforeAcquisitionFormula": "39-(5+1.5+2+3+1+2)=24.5"
  },
  "funnel": {
    "period": "first complete attribution window",
    "impressionToClick": {
      "low": 0.02,
      "base": 0.035,
      "high": 0.05,
      "basis": "40-click probe中的实际CTR并用上下界做压力测试",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告后台导出",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "reachableClicksPerMonth": {
      "low": 4.8,
      "base": 22.4,
      "high": 45.9,
      "formula": "reachableImpressionsPerMonth*impressionToClick"
    },
    "sampleAcquisitionDays": {
      "low": 188,
      "base": 41,
      "high": 20,
      "formula": "ceil(minimumSample/reachableClicksPerMonth*30)"
    },
    "clickToQualifiedVisit": {
      "low": 0.6,
      "base": 0.75,
      "high": 0.85
    },
    "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": {
      "low": 0.0083,
      "base": 0.02,
      "high": 0.0294
    },
    "feedbackDelayDays": 14
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "pessimistic",
      "preflight": "STOP",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 0,
        "cpc": 0.75,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.6,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.0083,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 5,
        "workHours": 1
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 0,
        "customers": 0,
        "revenue": 0,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 0,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 0,
        "acquisitionSpend": 0,
        "totalCashRequired": 5,
        "laborCost": 25,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -30,
        "cac": null,
        "cpc": 0.75
      },
      "action": "pause: 预检CPC 0.75高于锁定的基准maxCPC 0.60，停止投放；0点击不能冒充样本"
    },
    {
      "name": "base",
      "preflight": "ELIGIBLE",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 30,
        "cpc": 0.55,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.75,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.02,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 25,
        "workHours": 6
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 22.5,
        "customers": 0.45,
        "revenue": 17.55,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 6.525,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 11.025,
        "acquisitionSpend": 16.5,
        "totalCashRequired": 41.5,
        "laborCost": 150,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -180.475,
        "cac": 36.6666666667,
        "cpc": 0.55
      },
      "action": "唯一可执行情景：取得30点击并等待完整反馈后复查；不扩量"
    },
    {
      "name": "optimistic",
      "preflight": "SENSITIVITY_ONLY",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 30,
        "cpc": 0.45,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.85,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.0294,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 25,
        "workHours": 4
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 25.5,
        "customers": 0.7497,
        "revenue": 29.2383,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 10.87065,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 18.36765,
        "acquisitionSpend": 13.5,
        "totalCashRequired": 38.5,
        "laborCost": 100,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -120.13235,
        "cac": 18.0072028812,
        "cpc": 0.45
      },
      "action": "只作敏感性分析，不授权执行，也不直接宣布GO"
    }
  ],
  "economics": {
    "paybackHorizonMonths": 3,
    "acquisitionAllocationRate": {
      "value": 0.8,
      "basis": "累计贡献扣除安全储备后最多80%分配给获客，保留20%吸收模型与履约偏差",
      "source": "2026-07-31产品经济与风险政策",
      "asOf": "2026-07-31"
    },
    "paidMonthsWithinHorizon": {
      "low": 1.1448979592,
      "base": 2.7755102041,
      "high": 3,
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv"
    },
    "cumulativeContributionPerCustomer": {
      "low": 28.05,
      "base": 68,
      "high": 73.5,
      "formula": "unitContributionPerPaidMonth*paidMonthsWithinHorizon"
    },
    "safetyReserve": {
      "low": 15,
      "base": 18,
      "high": 20,
      "basis": "按退款、履约和模型误差的90日复盘设置每客不可用于获客的储备",
      "source": "2026-07-31产品经济与风险政策",
      "asOf": "2026-07-31"
    },
    "maxCac": {
      "low": 10.44,
      "base": 40,
      "high": 42.8,
      "formula": "min((cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)*acquisitionAllocationRate,cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)"
    },
    "maxCpc": {
      "low": 0.0519912,
      "base": 0.6,
      "high": 1.069572,
      "formula": "maxCAC*clickToQualifiedVisit*qualifiedVisitToCustomer"
    }
  },
  "test": {
    "decision": "SMALL_TEST",
    "primaryVariable": "entry keyword cluster",
    "heldConstant": [
      "price",
      "landing page",
      "geography",
      "attribution"
    ],
    "fixedNonMediaCashCap": 25,
    "cashCap": 43,
    "workHourCap": 6,
    "hourlyRate": 25,
    "minimumSample": {
      "unit": "click",
      "value": 30
    },
    "earliestReviewAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
    "attributionWindowDays": 14,
    "stopConditions": [
      "total cash reaches 43 USD",
      "actual CPC exceeds 0.60 USD base maxCPC",
      "payment or fulfillment failure"
    ],
    "reversalConditions": [
      "verified funnel changes maxCPC",
      "refund-adjusted contribution changes maxCAC"
    ]
  },
  "resultBranches": [
    {
      "condition": "no customers at review",
      "action": "pause"
    },
    {
      "condition": "customers but CAC above max",
      "action": "adjust"
    },
    {
      "condition": "CAC within max and fulfillment stable",
      "action": "continue"
    },
    {
      "condition": "demand or legal premise falsified",
      "action": "abandon"
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "filePath": "decisions/report-us.commercial-decision-contract.json",
    "validator": "downloads/validate-commercial-decision-contract.mjs",
    "status": "PASS"
  }
}