14. 风险、合规、安全与证据边界 · 整理推断 · 门禁 2

商业门：证据不全不得扩量

关键词和案例只能生成机会假设。

原知识点：关键词与内容案例只能生成获客假设；没有实际CPC、贡献毛利、转化区间、最大CAC和停止条件时不能授权扩大投放。

执行步骤

下载1.1.0空白模板、完整示例、留存证据CSV和验证器；CSV可按合同source保存到`billing/`，也可与待验证合同放在同一目录，验证器会依次查找。
填写系统边界、至少三个竞争假设、四级证据，以及`unresolvedBlockers`与`reversalEvidence`；GO必须没有open blocker，SMALL_TEST只能保留一个且必须与`primaryVariable`逐值一致。
把地域去重需求依次乘eligibility rate、impression share和CTR，复算可达展示、每月可达点击、30点击样本获取天数，再把反馈延迟加到createdAt得到earliestReviewAt。
填写价格、非获客成本、退款调整付费月数，并为`safetyReserve`和`acquisitionAllocationRate`写明basis/source/asOf；计算累计贡献、maxCAC和maxCPC。
三情景逐项计算点击、两段转化、现金、工时与劳动成本；先做preflight，CPC越过锁定base maxCPC时STOP且clicks=0，只有base可ELIGIBLE，乐观情景仅作SENSITIVITY_ONLY。
保存为`decisions/<decisionId>.commercial-decision-contract.json`并运行验证器；文件缺失、证据CSV不可读、公式/日期/门禁失败时阻止决定，PASS后也只能执行合同允许的边界动作。

可复制工作表

```json
{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "contractVersion": "1.1.0",
  "decisionId": "__",
  "createdAt": "__",
  "systemBoundary": {
    "project": "__",
    "requestedAction": "__",
    "geography": "__",
    "payer": "__",
    "beneficiary": "__",
    "resourceController": "__",
    "riskBearer": "__",
    "included": [
      "__"
    ],
    "excluded": [
      "__"
    ]
  },
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "claim": "__",
      "mechanism": "__",
      "falsifier": "__"
    },
    {
      "id": "H2",
      "claim": "__",
      "mechanism": "__",
      "falsifier": "__"
    },
    {
      "id": "H3",
      "claim": "__",
      "mechanism": "__",
      "falsifier": "__"
    }
  ],
  "unresolvedBlockers": [
    {
      "id": "__",
      "status": "open",
      "primaryVariable": "__REQUIRED__",
      "claim": "__",
      "resolutionEvidence": "__"
    }
  ],
  "reversalEvidence": [
    {
      "id": "__",
      "wouldChangeDecisionTo": "__SELECT__",
      "trigger": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claimId": "__",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "observedAt": "__",
      "scope": "__"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "__",
      "tier": "owner_reported",
      "value": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "observedAt": "__",
      "scope": "__"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "__",
      "tier": "tool_estimate",
      "value": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "observedAt": "__",
      "scope": "__"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "__",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "observedAt": "__",
      "scope": "__"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "__RECURRING_ECONOMICS__",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "__REFUND_ADJUSTED_PAID_MONTHS_LOW_BASE_HIGH__",
      "source": "__BILLING_COHORT_EXPORT__",
      "observedAt": "__YYYY-MM-DD__",
      "scope": "__GEOGRAPHY_AND_COHORT_SCOPE__"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "__RETENTION_BOUNDS__",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "__STRESS_LOW_AND_HORIZON_CAP__",
      "source": "__SAME_BILLING_COHORT_EXPORT__",
      "observedAt": "__YYYY-MM-DD__",
      "scope": "__MODELED_NOT_OBSERVED__"
    }
  ],
  "variables": {
    "observed": [
      {
        "name": "__",
        "value": "__",
        "unit": "__",
        "source": "__",
        "asOf": "__"
      }
    ],
    "controlled": [
      {
        "name": "__",
        "fixedAt": "__"
      }
    ],
    "noise": [
      {
        "name": "__",
        "mitigation": "__"
      }
    ],
    "feedbackDelays": [
      {
        "signal": "__",
        "days": "__",
        "basis": "__"
      }
    ]
  },
  "market": {
    "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "method": "__"
    },
    "eligibilityRate": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "basis": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    },
    "impressionShare": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "basis": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    },
    "reachableImpressionsPerMonth": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth*eligibilityRate*impressionShare"
    },
    "actualCpc": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "currency": "__",
      "source": "__"
    }
  },
  "offer": {
    "price": {
      "amount": "__",
      "currency": "__",
      "unit": "__"
    },
    "nonAcquisitionVariableCostsPerUnit": {
      "modelApi": "__",
      "payment": "__",
      "refundChargeback": "__",
      "fulfillmentSupport": "__",
      "infrastructure": "__",
      "taxCompliance": "__",
      "other": "__"
    },
    "contributionMarginBeforeAcquisitionFormula": "price-sum(nonAcquisitionVariableCosts)"
  },
  "funnel": {
    "period": "__",
    "impressionToClick": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "basis": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    },
    "reachableClicksPerMonth": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "reachableImpressionsPerMonth*impressionToClick"
    },
    "sampleAcquisitionDays": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "ceil(minimumSample/reachableClicksPerMonth*30)"
    },
    "clickToQualifiedVisit": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__"
    },
    "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__"
    },
    "feedbackDelayDays": "__"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "pessimistic",
      "preflight": "__SELECT__",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": null,
        "cpc": null,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": null,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": null,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": null,
        "workHours": null
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": null,
        "customers": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": null,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": null,
        "acquisitionSpend": null,
        "totalCashRequired": null,
        "laborCost": null,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": null,
        "cac": null,
        "cpc": null
      },
      "action": "__REQUIRED__"
    },
    {
      "name": "base",
      "preflight": "__SELECT__",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": null,
        "cpc": null,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": null,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": null,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": null,
        "workHours": null
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": null,
        "customers": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": null,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": null,
        "acquisitionSpend": null,
        "totalCashRequired": null,
        "laborCost": null,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": null,
        "cac": null,
        "cpc": null
      },
      "action": "__REQUIRED__"
    },
    {
      "name": "optimistic",
      "preflight": "__SELECT__",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": null,
        "cpc": null,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": null,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": null,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": null,
        "workHours": null
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": null,
        "customers": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": null,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": null,
        "acquisitionSpend": null,
        "totalCashRequired": null,
        "laborCost": null,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": null,
        "cac": null,
        "cpc": null
      },
      "action": "__REQUIRED__"
    }
  ],
  "economics": {
    "paybackHorizonMonths": "__",
    "acquisitionAllocationRate": {
      "value": "__",
      "basis": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    },
    "paidMonthsWithinHorizon": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "source": "__REFUND_ADJUSTED_BILLING_COHORT_EVIDENCE__"
    },
    "cumulativeContributionPerCustomer": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "unitContributionPerPaidMonth*paidMonthsWithinHorizon"
    },
    "safetyReserve": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "basis": "__",
      "source": "__",
      "asOf": "__YYYY-MM-DD__"
    },
    "maxCac": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "min((cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)*acquisitionAllocationRate,cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)"
    },
    "maxCpc": {
      "low": "__",
      "base": "__",
      "high": "__",
      "formula": "maxCAC*clickToQualifiedVisit*qualifiedVisitToCustomer"
    }
  },
  "test": {
    "decision": "__SELECT__",
    "primaryVariable": "__REQUIRED__",
    "heldConstant": [
      "__REQUIRED__"
    ],
    "fixedNonMediaCashCap": null,
    "cashCap": null,
    "workHourCap": null,
    "hourlyRate": null,
    "minimumSample": {
      "unit": "click",
      "value": null
    },
    "earliestReviewAt": "__RFC3339__",
    "attributionWindowDays": null,
    "stopConditions": [
      "__REQUIRED__"
    ],
    "reversalConditions": [
      "__REQUIRED__"
    ]
  },
  "resultBranches": [
    {
      "condition": "__",
      "action": "continue"
    },
    {
      "condition": "__",
      "action": "adjust"
    },
    {
      "condition": "__",
      "action": "pause"
    },
    {
      "condition": "__",
      "action": "abandon"
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "filePath": "decisions/<decisionId>.commercial-decision-contract.json",
    "validator": "downloads/validate-commercial-decision-contract.mjs",
    "status": "PENDING"
  }
}
```
公式约束：`reachableImpressions=deduplicatedDemand×eligibilityRate×impressionShare`；`reachableClicks/month=reachableImpressions×CTR`；`sampleAcquisitionDays=ceil(minimumSample/reachableClicksPerMonth×30)`；`earliestReviewAt=createdAt+base样本获取天数+feedbackDelayDays`；`laborCost=workHours×hourlyRate`；`netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor=contributionBeforeAcquisition-totalCashRequired-laborCost`；`maxCPC=maxCAC×clickToQualifiedVisit×qualifiedVisitToCustomer`；`cashCap<=fixedNonMediaCashCap+minimumSample×base maxCPC`。

完整示例

示例（数字非通用阈值）：保存为decisions/report-us.commercial-decision-contract.json并运行验证器；本例只允许SMALL_TEST。

{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "contractVersion": "1.1.0",
  "decisionId": "report-us",
  "createdAt": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
  "systemBoundary": {
    "project": "AI报告生成器",
    "requestedAction": "购买美国搜索流量",
    "geography": "US/en",
    "payer": "独立顾问",
    "beneficiary": "顾问客户",
    "resourceController": "项目所有者",
    "riskBearer": "项目所有者",
    "included": [
      "美国英语搜索广告",
      "39美元月订阅",
      "首个归因窗口"
    ],
    "excluded": [
      "自然搜索增长",
      "其他国家",
      "团队扩招"
    ]
  },
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "claim": "高意图查询能产生真实订阅",
      "mechanism": "省去手工整理时间",
      "falsifier": "合格点击达到样本仍无支付"
    },
    {
      "id": "H2",
      "claim": "需求存在但39美元价格过高",
      "mechanism": "替代品更便宜",
      "falsifier": "同价真实支付没有价格拒绝信号"
    },
    {
      "id": "H3",
      "claim": "支付前交付演示不足",
      "mechanism": "用户无法判断输出质量",
      "falsifier": "完整样例不改变结账行为"
    }
  ],
  "unresolvedBlockers": [
    {
      "id": "B1",
      "status": "open",
      "primaryVariable": "entry keyword cluster",
      "claim": "尚不知道哪一个入口词簇能在锁定页面、价格、地域和归因后取得可承受CAC的真实客户",
      "resolutionEvidence": "同一入口词簇取得30个原始付费点击并等待14天支付与退款反馈"
    }
  ],
  "reversalEvidence": [
    {
      "id": "R1",
      "wouldChangeDecisionTo": "PAUSE",
      "trigger": "基准入口词簇在30个原始付费点击后无真实客户，或CAC高于40 USD",
      "source": "本轮广告、支付与退款联结日志",
      "asOf": "2026-09-25"
    },
    {
      "id": "R2",
      "wouldChangeDecisionTo": "RESEARCH",
      "trigger": "地域去重需求、eligibility rate或impression share的新证据使30点击无法在现金与时间上限内取得",
      "source": "地域词表与广告展示份额报告",
      "asOf": "2026-09-25"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claimId": "demand",
      "tier": "tool_estimate",
      "value": "800-1200 deduplicated searches/month",
      "source": "地域去重词表",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-25",
      "scope": "US/en"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cpc",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "0.45-0.75 USD from 40-click probe",
      "source": "广告后台导出",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-28",
      "scope": "US/en"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "price",
      "tier": "owner_reported",
      "value": "39 USD/month",
      "source": "当前产品设置",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-01",
      "scope": "one plan"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "conversion",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "0.5%-2.5% click-to-customer",
      "source": "待本轮验证",
      "observedAt": "2026-08-01",
      "scope": "paid search"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "retention_base",
      "tier": "observed",
      "value": "observed refund-adjusted base paid months: 136/49=2.7755102041 in first 3 months",
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-31",
      "scope": "US/en paying cohort; 49 customers"
    },
    {
      "claimId": "retention_bounds",
      "tier": "hypothesis",
      "value": "low stress bound 56.1/49=1.1448979592; high horizon cap 147/49=3",
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv",
      "observedAt": "2026-07-31",
      "scope": "modeled bounds around observed base; not additional observed cohorts"
    }
  ],
  "variables": {
    "observed": [
      {
        "name": "actualCpc",
        "value": "0.45-0.75",
        "unit": "USD/click",
        "source": "40-click probe",
        "asOf": "2026-07-28"
      }
    ],
    "controlled": [
      {
        "name": "priceAndLandingPage",
        "fixedAt": "39 USD and version lp-v3"
      }
    ],
    "noise": [
      {
        "name": "auctionAndCompetitorChanges",
        "mitigation": "same geography and daily change log"
      }
    ],
    "feedbackDelays": [
      {
        "signal": "paymentAndRefund",
        "days": 14,
        "basis": "attribution plus refund observation"
      }
    ]
  },
  "market": {
    "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth": {
      "low": 800,
      "base": 1000,
      "high": 1200,
      "method": "same-region task-cluster deduplication"
    },
    "eligibilityRate": {
      "low": 0.6,
      "base": 0.8,
      "high": 0.9,
      "basis": "地域、语言、政策与否定词过滤后仍有资格进入竞价的需求比例",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告资格诊断导出",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "impressionShare": {
      "low": 0.5,
      "base": 0.8,
      "high": 0.85,
      "basis": "相同地域和入口词簇下的实际可获展示份额区间",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告展示份额报告",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "reachableImpressionsPerMonth": {
      "low": 240,
      "base": 640,
      "high": 918,
      "formula": "deduplicatedDemandPerMonth*eligibilityRate*impressionShare"
    },
    "actualCpc": {
      "low": 0.45,
      "base": 0.55,
      "high": 0.75,
      "currency": "USD",
      "source": "40-click probe"
    }
  },
  "offer": {
    "price": {
      "amount": 39,
      "currency": "USD",
      "unit": "customer-month"
    },
    "nonAcquisitionVariableCostsPerUnit": {
      "modelApi": 5,
      "payment": 1.5,
      "refundChargeback": 2,
      "fulfillmentSupport": 3,
      "infrastructure": 1,
      "taxCompliance": 2,
      "other": 0
    },
    "contributionMarginBeforeAcquisitionFormula": "39-(5+1.5+2+3+1+2)=24.5"
  },
  "funnel": {
    "period": "first complete attribution window",
    "impressionToClick": {
      "low": 0.02,
      "base": 0.035,
      "high": 0.05,
      "basis": "40-click probe中的实际CTR并用上下界做压力测试",
      "source": "2026-07-28广告后台导出",
      "asOf": "2026-07-28"
    },
    "reachableClicksPerMonth": {
      "low": 4.8,
      "base": 22.4,
      "high": 45.9,
      "formula": "reachableImpressionsPerMonth*impressionToClick"
    },
    "sampleAcquisitionDays": {
      "low": 188,
      "base": 41,
      "high": 20,
      "formula": "ceil(minimumSample/reachableClicksPerMonth*30)"
    },
    "clickToQualifiedVisit": {
      "low": 0.6,
      "base": 0.75,
      "high": 0.85
    },
    "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": {
      "low": 0.0083,
      "base": 0.02,
      "high": 0.0294
    },
    "feedbackDelayDays": 14
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "pessimistic",
      "preflight": "STOP",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 0,
        "cpc": 0.75,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.6,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.0083,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 5,
        "workHours": 1
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 0,
        "customers": 0,
        "revenue": 0,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 0,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 0,
        "acquisitionSpend": 0,
        "totalCashRequired": 5,
        "laborCost": 25,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -30,
        "cac": null,
        "cpc": 0.75
      },
      "action": "pause: 预检CPC 0.75高于锁定的基准maxCPC 0.60，停止投放；0点击不能冒充样本"
    },
    {
      "name": "base",
      "preflight": "ELIGIBLE",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 30,
        "cpc": 0.55,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.75,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.02,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 25,
        "workHours": 6
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 22.5,
        "customers": 0.45,
        "revenue": 17.55,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 6.525,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 11.025,
        "acquisitionSpend": 16.5,
        "totalCashRequired": 41.5,
        "laborCost": 150,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -180.475,
        "cac": 36.6666666667,
        "cpc": 0.55
      },
      "action": "唯一可执行情景：取得30点击并等待完整反馈后复查；不扩量"
    },
    {
      "name": "optimistic",
      "preflight": "SENSITIVITY_ONLY",
      "inputs": {
        "clicks": 30,
        "cpc": 0.45,
        "clickToQualifiedVisit": 0.85,
        "qualifiedVisitToCustomer": 0.0294,
        "fixedNonMediaCashSpend": 25,
        "workHours": 4
      },
      "outputs": {
        "qualifiedVisits": 25.5,
        "customers": 0.7497,
        "revenue": 29.2383,
        "nonAcquisitionCosts": 10.87065,
        "contributionBeforeAcquisition": 18.36765,
        "acquisitionSpend": 13.5,
        "totalCashRequired": 38.5,
        "laborCost": 100,
        "netAfterAcquisitionAndLabor": -120.13235,
        "cac": 18.0072028812,
        "cpc": 0.45
      },
      "action": "只作敏感性分析，不授权执行，也不直接宣布GO"
    }
  ],
  "economics": {
    "paybackHorizonMonths": 3,
    "acquisitionAllocationRate": {
      "value": 0.8,
      "basis": "累计贡献扣除安全储备后最多80%分配给获客，保留20%吸收模型与履约偏差",
      "source": "2026-07-31产品经济与风险政策",
      "asOf": "2026-07-31"
    },
    "paidMonthsWithinHorizon": {
      "low": 1.1448979592,
      "base": 2.7755102041,
      "high": 3,
      "source": "billing/retention-cohort-US-2026-07-31.csv"
    },
    "cumulativeContributionPerCustomer": {
      "low": 28.05,
      "base": 68,
      "high": 73.5,
      "formula": "unitContributionPerPaidMonth*paidMonthsWithinHorizon"
    },
    "safetyReserve": {
      "low": 15,
      "base": 18,
      "high": 20,
      "basis": "按退款、履约和模型误差的90日复盘设置每客不可用于获客的储备",
      "source": "2026-07-31产品经济与风险政策",
      "asOf": "2026-07-31"
    },
    "maxCac": {
      "low": 10.44,
      "base": 40,
      "high": 42.8,
      "formula": "min((cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)*acquisitionAllocationRate,cumulativeContributionPerCustomer-safetyReserve)"
    },
    "maxCpc": {
      "low": 0.0519912,
      "base": 0.6,
      "high": 1.069572,
      "formula": "maxCAC*clickToQualifiedVisit*qualifiedVisitToCustomer"
    }
  },
  "test": {
    "decision": "SMALL_TEST",
    "primaryVariable": "entry keyword cluster",
    "heldConstant": [
      "price",
      "landing page",
      "geography",
      "attribution"
    ],
    "fixedNonMediaCashCap": 25,
    "cashCap": 43,
    "workHourCap": 6,
    "hourlyRate": 25,
    "minimumSample": {
      "unit": "click",
      "value": 30
    },
    "earliestReviewAt": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
    "attributionWindowDays": 14,
    "stopConditions": [
      "total cash reaches 43 USD",
      "actual CPC exceeds 0.60 USD base maxCPC",
      "payment or fulfillment failure"
    ],
    "reversalConditions": [
      "verified funnel changes maxCPC",
      "refund-adjusted contribution changes maxCAC"
    ]
  },
  "resultBranches": [
    {
      "condition": "no customers at review",
      "action": "pause"
    },
    {
      "condition": "customers but CAC above max",
      "action": "adjust"
    },
    {
      "condition": "CAC within max and fulfillment stable",
      "action": "continue"
    },
    {
      "condition": "demand or legal premise falsified",
      "action": "abandon"
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "filePath": "decisions/report-us.commercial-decision-contract.json",
    "validator": "downloads/validate-commercial-decision-contract.mjs",
    "status": "PASS"
  }
}

硬校验：地域去重需求800/1000/1200依次乘eligibility rate 0.6/0.8/0.9与impression share 0.5/0.8/0.85，得到240/640/918个可达展示/月；再乘CTR 0.02/0.035/0.05，得到4.8/22.4/45.9个可达点击/月。30点击样本需要ceil(30÷4.8×30)=188天、ceil(30÷22.4×30)=41天、ceil(30÷45.9×30)=20天；基准41天再加14天反馈，使2026-08-01后的最早复查日为2026-09-25。悲观CPC 0.75>锁定base maxCPC 0.60，预检即STOP，clicks=0、现金5、劳动25、净值−30，绝不拿预测点击凑样本；基准是唯一ELIGIBLE情景，30点击产生22.5合格访问、0.45客户、现金41.5、劳动150，净值11.025−41.5−150=−180.475；乐观情景仅SENSITIVITY_ONLY，现金38.5、劳动100，净值18.36765−38.5−100=−120.13235。获客前月贡献仍为24.5美元；退款调整付费月数1.1448979592/2.7755102041/3复算累计贡献28.05/68/73.5，扣15/18/20安全储备再按0.8获客分配率得到maxCAC 10.44/40/42.8，进而得到maxCPC 0.0519912/0.6/1.069572。现金合同满足43=25+30×0.60；唯一open blocker与primaryVariable同为entry keyword cluster，所以只能SMALL_TEST，绝不授权GO。

完成清单

`decisions/<decisionId>.commercial-decision-contract.json`实际存在、可解析，contractVersion为1.1.0，且卡内模板、下载模板、卡内示例、下载示例和实际合同递归同构并逐值同步。
合同含included/excluded、至少三个竞争假设、四级证据、四类变量、unresolvedBlockers与reversalEvidence；GO必须无open blocker且有至少两个独立非hypothesis来源（至少一个observed），SMALL_TEST恰有一个与primaryVariable一致的open blocker。
需求→eligibility rate→impression share→可达展示→CTR→每月可达点击→样本获取天数→earliestReviewAt全链可复算；基准为640展示/月、22.4点击/月、41天取样，再加14天反馈得到2026-09-25。
验证器复算累计贡献、maxCAC/maxCPC、现金、劳动成本与净结果，并拒绝STOP后凑点击、多个ELIGIBLE情景、乐观情景被当作执行授权、CPC越线未停及现金/工时越限。
完整示例与实际合同退出码为0并输出PASS；占位模板必须FAIL；任一关键字段、公式、日期、证据门禁或preflight变异都必须被mutation tests拒绝。

适用 / 触发章节

完成后返回

逐入口门禁回流

从第 1 章进入：从商业链假设授权显著开发或花费前；通过返回第 1 章；未通过修复第 1 章、第 3 章、第 10 章、第 12 章。
从第 3 章进入：从机会评估授权立项、开发或买量前；通过返回第 3 章；未通过修复第 3 章、第 10 章、第 12 章。
从第 9 章进入：扩大程序化页面或相关资源投入前；通过返回第 9 章；未通过修复第 9 章、第 10 章、第 12 章。
从第 10 章进入：把KPI结果升级为商业GO前；通过返回第 10 章；未通过修复第 10 章、第 12 章。
从第 11 章进入：扩大付费或高成本分发前；通过返回第 11 章；未通过修复第 11 章、第 10 章、第 12 章。
从第 12 章进入：定价、开放真实支付或扩大获客前；通过返回第 12 章；未通过修复第 12 章、第 10 章。
从第 13 章进入：自动化、外包或扩团队增加真实成本前；通过返回第 13 章；未通过修复第 13 章、第 12 章。

可下载工作文件

Commercial Decision Contract 空白模板：复制后填写；保留全部字段，占位值会被验证器拒绝。
Commercial Decision Contract 完整示例：展示证据分层、三情景、经济公式和结果—动作分支。
退款调整留存 Cohort 示例：验证器实际读取的经济证据；基准为观察值，低/高仅为压力边界与回收期上限。
Commercial Decision Contract 验证器：无依赖 Node.js 校验器；示例与证据应 PASS，未填模板应 FAIL。

返回风险门禁总览

适用条件

输入不足只能继续研究或做单变量、有现金上限的小测。

来源：如何用 AI 做内容营销